I started researching and writing this primarily so I could gain a deeper understanding of the facts, figures and background to rates of offending in the Trans+ community.

The primary motive for that was because on more than one occasion it has been raised to me that over 60% of transgender prisoners in the UK were locked up for sexual offences. Which I found mind blowing.

It is worth noting that I have done my best to approach this research and writing without bias, you can believe that or not, I don’t really care, but, those who know me well enough will know that I always seek out alternative narratives to most points of view. Make of that what you will.

Who’s in Prison?

Let’s have a look at some facts around offending in the general population and within the trans+ community…

At present there are around 295 prisoners (Based on date from the Ministry Of Justice and HMPPS offender equalities annual report 2023-2024)  who have identified as transgender (or not of their birth assigned gender, so non binary etc would be expected to fall into this category) across the whole of the UK prison population.

As of the last census around 262,000 people in the UK identified as trans or non gender conforming.

So

With a population share of 0.5% the percentage occupancy of prisons is around 0.34% for transgender individuals collectively.

Let’s put that into context in comparison with the general public, I am going to split this by gender because I feel like it is important to do so within this conversation.

General non trans population at last census =

Male population at last census = 29,177,200

Male Prison Population = 84,043

Male prison vs general population = 0.23%

Female population at last census = 30,420,100

Female Prison Population = 3,683

Female prison vs general population = 0.01%

Transgender population at last census = 262,000

Transgender Prison Population = 295

Transgender prison vs general population = 0.11%

But what happens if we only look at trans vs non trans numbers?

UK non-trans population = 59,597,300

UK non-trans Prison population = 87,726

UK non-trans prison vs general population = 0.14%

So from this we can see that in general (according to the numbers we have, which I will admit are questionable for the trans community, more on that later) trans individuals are less likely that the general population to end up in prison, when split by gender trans individuals are half (ish) as likely as men to end up in prison but 10 times more likely than women (well done girls, either you are very well behaved or very smart).

I think a brief pause to contemplate the HUGE difference between men and women ending up in prison is needed, this was an eye opener for me!

My first issue with these numbers is as follows…

Why is there a disparity between prison rates of trans individuals and the general population?

The Poverty Paradox

The governments statement from the Ministry Of Justice in 2014 ‘Transforming Rehabilitation: A summary of evidence on reducing reoffending’ listed unemployment, low education, unstable housing and poverty as key drivers of offending.

When the above is coupled with the trans+ community being one of the poorest communities in the UK…

 A 2023 BMJ Medicine study based on UK primary care data found that trans people are 81% more likely to be unemployed and 66% more likely to receive disability benefits. It also noted that people in high-deprivation areas were more than twice as likely to record a trans+ identity.

One would expect the opposite to be the case. So why is it not?

In my mind there are a few reasons for this (opinion of course, not fact)…

  • Trans people are more intelligent criminals so don’t get caught (lol)
  • Trans people are less likely to commit ‘serious’ crime (for clarity, serious crime meaning long prison term attracting), there are no numbers available for gender in relation to minor offences that result in cautions or community orders so that probably skews the data
  • Trans people that are able to ‘hide’ (so have not undergone facial, top or bottom surgery) are not self identifying within the prison system so the numbers are inaccurate

Of course the first point is a joke, but the others are very relevant, when you work with tiny numbers (a prison population of 295 is a tiny number) then the smallest of irregularities make a huge difference.

Now please do not think I am trying to diminish the fact that there is an incongruent number of sexual offences within the trans prison population, I really am not, and it is something as a community I think we need to look at in detail as this number affects all of us.

I will come back to this point later, but what has become apparent in my research is that the tracking numbers within the UK prison system are very bad, I will show some comparisons with other countries shortly.

What Offences Look Like

Let’s consider point 2 as a starter, when we look at prison numbers by offence, we look at broad categories as follows (including general prison population rates)…

Violence – 26%

Sexual Offences – 16%

Drugs – 13%

Theft/Handling Stolen Goods – 7%

Robbery – 6.5%

Fraud/Forgery – 0.7%

Criminal Damage/Arson – 1%

Public Order – 1.7%

Miscellaneous/Motor – 2.7%

When you consider those categories in relation to the trans community there is, I suppose, a link. From a personal perspective I have yet to meet a transgender football hooligan, street fighter, bank robber, fence or car thief, whilst in my 43 years on the planet I have met gender conforming examples of each (sign of a mis-spent youth potentially). I am not saying that they don’t exist, more that the characteristics don’t seem to match.

I would be more expectant of finding petty theft, low level drug dealing, potentially burglary at the higher end on the rap sheet of a trans+ individual who is drawn to criminality, all of which fail to show up in the prison system numbers and have no visibility in terms of gender % in the overall crime reporting within the UK system.

The other thing that could potentially be worth mentioning is that a lot of those major crimes are financially driven, even within the violence category, a lot would fall under financially driven crimes.

Sex Work & Survival

Now, this is not necessarily linked (or maybe not linked at all) but the trans community has a MASSIVE over representation within the realms of reported sex work, 4% of people selling sex in the UK are trans women, from a population of 0.2% the report can be found here https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/64666/html/ .

So could it be that the numbers in prison are lower because the trans community turns to sex work when in desperate circumstances rather than crime therefore lowering the number of individuals in those categories?

VPUs & Disclosure Incentives

Moving on to point 3

Here is where things get really interesting, if you look at motivations and protections a huge variable rears its head, and that is how prisoners are housed…

Within the prison system usually there is the general population (where the majority of prisoners are held) and special units known as Vulnerable Prisoner Units (VPU) where ex police officers, high profile criminals, some trans prisoners and SOME sex offenders (not all) are housed for their own safety.

So what, I hear you say…

Well, it is widely known that sex offenders are the bottom of the food chain when it comes to prison life, in general population they are almost always at risk of abuse, attack, bullying and harassment (which seems a fair punishment if I am honest). Now, whilst they do get looked at as vulnerable, they do not automatically get assigned to a VPU so there is every chance they end up in general population and at real risk.

However…

If they disclose they are also transgender their chances of ending up on a VPU jump to almost 100% (80-100%). Amazingly there is no real burden of proof levelled at them either.

So you could say that sex offenders, who are generally thought to be more devious and intelligent than some of the prison population are incentivised to claim they are transgender to ensure their safety (if not comfort).

Let’s counteract that with non sexual offenders…

The statistics on non-sexual transgender offenders being placed in VPU is admittedly vague (again, poor reporting practices within the UK) but from what I could see a working estimate could be in the region of 50% – parliamentary figures state ‘most’ transgender prisoners are placed on VPU but this does not differentiate sexual and non sexual convictions.

A study into transgender individuals in prison: Suhomlinova & O’Shea (2024) (pro tip, it isn’t pleasant reading, you have been warned) found that despite the tiny number of trans prisoners in the system 29% of the study cohort of 19 were subject to sexual assault (previous MoJ stats were around 9% in 2019) compared to around 0.4% of non trans prisoners. The rates of self harm and suicide in trans prisoners dwarfed that of male and female prisoners.

Let me ask you a question, if you were a transgender person facing prison for a non sexual crime, you knew the statistics around sexual assault, rape and harassment, you knew that there was a 50/50 chance of getting protection if you self identified and you knew you could hide your trans status within general population, would you?

I know for sure that I would!

And herein lies the point, there is a huge incentive for non trans sex offenders to lie about their status for greater protections, whilst there is also a huge incentive for genuine trans prisoners to lie about their trans status for their own self preservation.

That simply HAS to skew the numbers, and when the numbers are already small then looking at percentages can be troubling!

With this evidence considered the 60+% of sexual offences within the trans prison population suddenly seems a little shaky.

I have a litany of other pieces of research and studies that I looked at over the last few days around offending rates by age group within the prison system, which are largely overlooked within this conversation and make for quite worrying reading but I am already at 1,700 words here so figured I would leave that, if you want to have a chat about these feel free to get in touch.

We have now looked at the data that is available within the UK and, I think, posed some interesting questions.

Now let’s look at how that data itself is almost certainly incorrect…

International Comparisons

I did a bit of a deep dive into countries that DO have significant data around their transgender communities and their prison systems, I came up with the following…

  • USA
  • Netherlands/Sweden/Norway

Now, the hard and fast numbers again are a little tough to decipher but the overall trend is that the offender profile of trans identifying prisoners in these countries is roughly in line with that of the male population. The caveat to this is that US date is from 2011/2012 so possibly not completely up to date.

The big question then is why does the UK profile look so far different to these countries, after all, people are people and we are comparing western countries so culturally should be similar. So, if there was a propensity for sexual assault within the trans identifying community, it should show up in other countries, right?

Well…

In the US, sex offenders are already managed as high-risk and usually segregated. Declaring a transgender identity doesn’t increase the chances of protective placement, in fact it may lead to harsher isolation. In the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway, self-identification doesn’t work the way it does in the UK. Prison systems require significant medical or legal evidence before treating someone as transgender, making opportunistic claims far less likely.

I would posit that in the UK we have a double whammy of very limited data sources and a system that in theory rewards sex offenders for claiming to be trans whilst also discouraging legitimately transgender individuals from self identifying.

So does that 60+% figure still seem like an accurate measure?

I’m not so sure.

But how can we get to a better idea of what offending really looks like?

I think that better reporting needs to be implemented, on all levels, from arrest rates upwards, if you continue to stick to the binary you can never know the true picture.

I absolutely feel like there needs to be a burden of proof on prisoners in the UK who claim transgender status, where the line of proof sits is the question. From my point of view I think at least 12 months evidence of social transition and/or a medical transition journey at least started should be the bare minimum.

Outside of this, I do find it worrying that there seems to be a trend towards sexual offenders hiding within my community, I think that we should really be having open conversations about why some sex offenders are drawn to gender nonconformity either as a vehicle for their offending or as an excuse for it, especially as it disgusts the vast majority of us.

I fear that the western approach of making it a ‘taboo’ topic and avoiding realistic discussion amplifies it as a fetish, which unfortunately will attract some people who have abhorrent views around sexual practices, I further think that the justice system in the UK is failing the transgender community on a massive scale by the way it collects and presents data.

With this data cited by multiple trans-misogynistic individuals/groups and less than tolerant media sources it allows 151 people to massively distort the truth of the vast majority of transgender and non binary individuals in the UK who are disgusted by their actions.

What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments, via email – lisa@becominglissy.com or on my Instagram @becoming_lissy

Want to read more, here are some of my references…